Spurs Lottery Odds
At this point, my entire focus is on the upcoming draft. With that in mind, let's paint a picture of potential Spurs odds when factoring in the Hawks pick.
Spurs and Hawks currently sit at the 10th and 11th worst records in the league. The top 4 seem untouchable (10+ games behind us). Portland, Chicago, Brooklyn, Philly and MAYBE Toronto are catchable.
Toronto has the easiest schedule in the league remaining according to Tankathon. Our Spurs have the 7th toughest schedule remaining.
Current Lottery Odds
If Spurs stay at 10, and Hawks stay at 11, we have 3% + 2% = 5% odds of landing the first pick.
Best Odds
If Spurs tank to 5 and Hawks lose to 6, we have 10.5% + 9% = 19.5% odds of landing the first pick.
Note: 19.5% would be better than every other team in the lottery (top 3 teams each get 14% odds).
Realistic Odds
If Spurs tank to 6 and Hawks lose to 9, we have 9% + 4.5% = 13.5% odds of landing the first pick.
If Hawks stay at 11, then we drop down to 11% odds of landing the first pick.
There is a real chance that the Spurs could walk away with near or BETTER odds of landing the first pick than all the other teams in the league.
There are 4 teams within 4 games underneath us — catching up to them would TRIPLE our odds of getting the first pick (with our pick alone).
The Spurs dream of capturing the Flagg is very much alive with 27 games remaining in the season to make up ground.
Edit: this is only concerned with the #1 pick and not about actually landing a top 4 spot.