Draft strategy for a late pick

Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. Stay flexible, target best player available and adapt to the flow of the draft while targeting players with the highest upside. That said, you should come into the draft with an understanding of the landscape in order to know where the positional value lies ahead and to take advantage of tier breaks, so this is my strategy round-by-round for a late pick in a standard half PPR, 12 team snake redraft league.

Rounds 1-2

WRs dominate the 1/2 turn again this year. After Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown you will likely have a number of these guys sitting there at the turn:

  • A.J. Brown - Arguably the most physically talented WR in the league behind Tyreek Hill. Philly's offense could play faster and higher pass rate under Kellen Moore, rebounding after a horrible finish behind Hurts' playmaking.
  • Garrett Wilson - Has shown talent to jump into the upper echelon but never had any stability in the offense.
  • Puka Nacua - Finished as the WR5 as a rookie. Target share should be heavily consolidated even if Kupp re-emerges.
  • Marvin Harrison Jr. - Undoubtedly a stud but expecting a top-8 finish from a rookie WR is ambitious.

At RB, you miss out on the clear top tier of CMC, Breece and Bijan and have a number of mid-range RB1 options:

  • Jahmyr Gibbs - Hyper-talented pass-catching back with great game-script and top 3 offensive line. The lack of certainty around his goal-line usage and between-the-tackles work is concerning, but that's the only thing keeping him out of the Breece + Bijan tier.
  • Devon Achane - You're in or you're out. I play fantasy football to win it all, go big or go home, and Achane is the biggest test of faith we've had in years.
  • Jonathan Taylor - Centerpiece of a run-heavy offense. More stable role compared to other RBs in this range but I have concerns about pass catching.
  • Saquon Barkley - Even with a good line and offense, there are concerns about Hurts vulturing touchdowns and dump-offs, plus mediocre advanced metrics.
  • Kyren Williams is the only guy in the Henry, Etienne, Pacheco tier that could make sense this early.

The biggest question is when is most optimal to take an RB. Gibbs and Achane are both potential home-runs, number 1 overall upside for me, with a better ceiling than anywhere else in the draft by far and signifies a tier break for me. Maybe for you, it's JT, Saquon or Kyren instead here. Either way, Josh Jacobs and James Cook likely won't be available around the corner at 3/4 in home leagues and those are the last guys I am comfortable with as my RB1. I know I want to invest in the premium pass-catchers rounds 3-7 so I double tap here on both my legendary upside backs in Gibbs and Achane or take AJ Brown in round 1 and RB on the way back.

The picks: 2 RB (Jahmyr Gibbs + Devon Achane) or 1 RB + 1 WR (AJB, Puka, Wilson)

Rounds 3-4

This turn is strong and much more balanced with strength at all positions. At WR, you likely miss out on Mike Evans, Michael Pittman and Deebo Samuel tier but there are a number of studs with pedigree, upside and some obvious (and potentially overblown) risk:

  • Jaylen Waddle - Waddle is just a really freaking good player in his prime and I am trusting the talent to win out as WR2 on a great offense pending health.
  • DJ Moore - Unlike Waddle, he is the WR1 in Chicago, but hasn't shown the consistency of other true WR1s even after his WR1 finish last year (bloated by huge games).
  • Cooper Kupp - Has put up legendary seasons in the not-so-distant past but injuries might have caught up to him. I think Kupp has more to give and I buy the dip.
  • Devonta Smith - Underrated in the same vein as Waddle playing robin. I think he's a great player in for a huge season and a huge value with a pass-focused regime change.
  • Malik Nabers - If Harrison Jr is going so early, Nabers should be right behind him. There is value here as the Giants offense reeks but that should mean a huge target share.
  • Stefon Diggs - I buy the locker room narrative that things just got toxic last season for the Bills, in a contract year and showed he can still play at a top 5 level in the first half of last season.
  • DK Metcalf is a prototypical X receiver that doesn’t get open at a high rate with questions about target competition and offensive line, he’s a a soft fade but might prove me wrong.

At QB, I'd love to grab Hurts here as my overall QB1 but likely miss on him, which leaves us with:

  • Patrick Mahomes - The greatest quarterback of our generation now has two explosive weapons added to a super bowl team.
  • Lamar Jackson - MVP has another year in Monken offense, but getting older and better as a passer means running less and lacking the same rushing TD upside as Hurts, Richardson and Allen.

At RB:

  • Josh Jacobs - Uber-volume seasons are likely a thing of the past under Lafleur but efficiency and touchdowns should make up for it.
  • James Cook - I have him behind Jacobs due to questions about the goal-line role but he has shown to be a crucial playmaker on the ground and in the air for a Bills team that needs playmakers and should be winning games.
  • Walker, Mixon, White could be options here but I don't see the same likelihood of RB1.

At TE:

  • Sam Laporta - Probably won't be here but I'd love to bet that he's the next perennial TE to carry the torch after Kelce.
  • Travis Kelce - Speaking of torch, it's still Kelce's until further notice. 1300 yards is a thing of the past but he's still the best tight end in the league.
  • These guys are a tier of their own above McBride, Andrews, Kincaid

Since I grabbed a RB already, I’m not forced to grab one here if Jacobs or Cook doesn’t fall. At QB, Mahomes and Lamar are certainly enticing, but I know that WR is very strong here and that TE is top-heavy, so I feel more comfortable waiting on QB if Hurts isn’t here. BPA is WR and TE here and I let the value fall to me.

The picks: 1 WR (Kupp, Moore, Waddle, Smith, Diggs, Nabers) and 1 TE (Laporta, Kelce) or 2 WR

Rounds 5-6

At WR, we likely miss out on Cooper, Flowers, Nabers and Higgins, which leaves us with an incredibly long (yet strong) stretch of WRs that includes:

  • Tank Dell - Incredible rookie year and looks like he has a special connection with Stroud, but is coming off an injury and I still have unanswered questions about how his size impacts his role with even more competition for targets.
  • Rashee Rice - Will potentially move up a round or two closer to draft season if word comes out about a lesser suspension, but if not then he is also an absolute smash here.
  • Christian Kirk - High floor, low-ish ceiling play for a guy that is a safety valve and WR1 for TLaw.
  • Keenan Allen - Somehow gets drafted at his floor every year and coming off a smash season. Keenan's game ages well as a technician and I will target him here if available.
  • Diontae Johnson - Earns targets at an elite rate and is a true alpha that is incredibly underrated. We saw how Thielen started the year and I believe there is a void in this room for a true alpha target that will flourish even with a struggling QB.
  • George Pickens - The vibes in Pittsburgh aren't great behind center and I can see this situation blowing up. That said, there's no real competition and he has the talent to take a big leap. I love Pickens as a ceiling play and bank on established role for floor.
  • I like Terry McLaurin, Chris Godwin, Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown and Jayden Reed here as well but I'll lean towards taking one of these other guys.

At RB, it's likely that a number of guys with a starting role but lots of question marks will be sitting there at the turn:

  • Kenneth Walker might last here and would be a good pick as an explosive back that we bet to earn volume. The highs are high but the lows are very low.
  • Aaron Jones and Alvin Kamara are old running backs that are lifted by projection, I don't love the sound of a classic deadzone back. Rhamondre is a dead-zone back too.
  • David Montgomery, Deandre Swift, Zamir White, James Conner are options here but usually go later.

At QB, I'd love to see Stroud or Richardson fall here but otherwise both Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow are in discussion. I love Kyler this year and think he's going to be a top 5 QB.

If we haven't gone with a TE yet, Kittle, Pitts and Engram are sitting there for the taking:

  • Kyle Pitts - Fool me once… emotions tell me I want to fade but that also tells me the market is being emotional too at this price. I like the upside and understand the risk.
  • George Kittle is a great player, great offense and will get the ball. The floor is bad but TEs with his ceiling do not exist anywhere else in the draft other than Laporta, Kincaid and McBride.
  • Engram is in the same discussion but doesn't have the same weekly ceiling as these guys.

The picks: 2 WR (Dell, Rice, Kirk, Allen, Diontae, Pickens) or 1 TE / QB (Pitts, Kittle, Kyler Murray)

Rounds 7-8

The draft starts to switch back over to RB value without a huge drop-off from the previous turn:

  • James Conner - If he falls here, I love the value if you need a RB, but plan for things to go south during the middle of the season.
  • Raheem Mostert - Casual leagues will also probably see him going earlier.
  • Jaylen Warren - Love the talent and pass-catching explosiveness, major buy this year. Najee is in range here too, but I like the upside of Warren better.
  • Jonathon Brooks - Could be a top 2 round pick next year, i'll take a chance.
  • Brian Robinson - Love Robinson this year, but he's not a lock for higher than a low-end RB2.
  • Devin Singletary, Javonte Williams and Zack Moss are in the conversation but I hate the ceiling of these guys in a redraft league.

At QB:

  • Jordan Love - Could be MVP and I'm trusting Lafleur to cook.
  • Brock Purdy - Might also be MVP but does it on extreme efficiency, I think the price is right here if you need QB but not as much as Love.
  • Jayden Daniels - Say hello to this year's big QB sleeper. I love the bet on a top 5 season for him over Caleb (who I like too).

At WR, if one of those guys listed in contention at the previous turn are still here, I’ll smash that button, otherwise we have:

  • Jordan Addison - Was always highly touted through high school and is just a good player, this is a good price for a potential top 15 WR talent in the league.
  • Rome Odunze - Also potential for top 15 WR talent in the league but something would need to happen to DJ Moore or Keenan.
  • Ladd McConkey - Basically a first round pick for an offense that's going to need to use Herbert's arm if they want to compete with Palmer as the only real competition.
  • Brian Thomas Jr. - Was in a tier of his own after Harrison, Odunze, Nabers and went to a place with a good QB and minimal competition for targets. He should eventually dominate the outside with his size + speed profile but could take some time behind Kirk.

At TE, Ferguson and Bowers are good options here with Fergy as the last TE1 I'm comfortable with and Bowers as an upside pick.

The picks: 1 upside WR (Odunze, McConkey, Addison, Thomas Jr.) + fill in 1 RB (Conner, Mostert, Warren, Robinson), 1 QB (Jordan Love, Jayden Daniels) or 1 TE (Ferguson, Bowers) as needed

Rounds 9+

It's easier to list my sleepers at this point, which have a lot of good options at cost for all positions:

  • Keon Coleman - Potential WR1 and end-zone role with Allen.
  • Zeke Elliott - Will have the goal-line role and still looked like he had a little juice last year. Dowdle is a good pick too. Both could suck though, hence the cheap price.
  • Chase Brown - Climbing up boards and I'll still probably take him.
  • Pat Freiermuth - The only guy I can see myself being comfortable with in Week 1 if I punt on TE.
  • Trevor Lawrence - My favorite late round QB after the Herbert injury. Rodgers too.
  • Josh Palmer - Should be going way higher, he might be just-a-guy but they trust him.
  • Dontavian Wicks - Every film nerd's favorite sleeper and I like the talent + offense too.
  • Jerry Jeudy - Going to be good this year after the Browns investment in going more spread offense for a solidified role in the slot.
  • JK Dobbins has a better shot to win this starting job than people think on a team that could lead the league in neutral script run rate.
  • Upside RB2s like Marshawn Lloyd, Zach Charbonnet, Kimani Vidal, Audric Estime, Ty Chandler - Not bad because you can drop them if they don't see any stand-alone value early.

Potential Team:

QB: Jordan Love (8)
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs (1)
RB: Devon Achane (2)
WR: Cooper Kupp (4)
WR: Christian Kirk (5)
TE: Travis Kelce (3)
Flex: Rashee Rice (6)
Bench: Rome Odunze (7), Keon Coleman (9), Chase Brown (10), Josh Palmer (11), Jerry Jeudy (12), Marshawn Lloyd (13)