Playoff and #1 Pick Scenarios Entering Week 18

The number 1 pick ended up being boring, but just barely.

NE has a massively weak SoS. None of the eight other 3/4-win teams can win a tiebreaker against NE, even with everything going their way. This eliminates the five 4-win teams immediately, leaving only TEN/CLE/NYG who could get an outright worse record with a NE victory.

TEN is next on the ladder, neither CLE or NYG could beat them in the tiebreaker. So they get the pick with a loss and NE win.

The interesting bit is the last remaining tie, where NE/TEN win but CLE/NYG lose. Right now CLE has the weaker SoS and NYG could just barely tie them in SoS if everything went their way... But then it would go to head-to-head and NYG beat CLE in week 3. So CLE ends up clinching the tiebreaker without consulting a long list of other games.