Can Fernanda Torres actually manage to win?

So far, I've had her at second place at a dark horse, since Demi Moore has both the performance and the narrative to boot. But, SPC is campaigning the hell out of this film. Torres has been giving interviews everywhere, and she has the narrative of "her mother was wronged, and she gives a sublime performance, so by giving it to her, you recognize both of them". I'm debating whether I should actually move her to no. 1. She doesn't have CC, SAG or BAFTA, but she won the GG at absolutely the right time.