The dire current situation of Saw: An analysis

Okay everyone, buckle up. This is going to be a depressing one.

I'd like to preface by saying that I still think Saw XI has a chance of happening, but most of that comes from sheer disbelief at the situation the series finds itself in. At this point in time, and after thinking about it quite a bit and trying to analyze the current situation from a pragmatic standpoint, I'm unfortunately of the mind that Saw could go dormant for a long time. I'm talking over a decade from now. Here's why.

I won't retread old territory and explain what's reportedly happening behind the scenes, but the TL;DR is that as of Saw X, Twisted Pictures, not Lionsgate, dictates whether new Saw films get made or not, and Twisted Pictures currently aren't able to get on the same page about what conditions to make Saw XI under. If you want to know more about that and the details of why Twisted now gets to dictate when Saw gets made or not, I suggest you check out this older thread I made, back when I was naive and optimistic about Saw XI's chances of happening, based on the same reasoning that could very well end up killing the film...

Now lets get into the meat of things. There are two ways we could get future Saw films based on where things are today:

1- Twisted get on the same page and produce Saw XI under the same conditions Saw X was made under (this appears unlikely at the moment, but I would like to keep hoping that it will.)

2- Twisted sell the rights to Saw to another company, and that other company makes more Saw films. This appears to me like the likelier way we get more Saw films.

I'm personally quite distraught at this reality, because I think the current creative team, hired by Twisted, is UNIQUELY positioned to make the best Saw films possible. I think Twisted understands this or at least is loyal to them in a way others wouldn't be. I feel very strongly about this and could go on and on about why, but that's not what this thread is about. I'm sure many people are more open-minded than I am and would be thrilled to see someone else attempt another Saw film. But lets look at the financial realities behind this option. Note this is my own analysis, and not based on any kind of insider information:

First, an assumption based on my obsessive analysis of this series (and again, for more details on how I come to them, check out the older thread I linked above):

- Saw films nowadays likely net Twisted themselves about 8 to 15 million when they perform in their usual range of around Jigsaw to Saw X (after production costs, marketing costs, distribution costs, Lionsgate and theaters taking their cuts, etc).

Now lets try and make another, more difficult assumption to answer this question: How much would Saw be sold for? We can look at similar deals that have been made in the industry in recent years -- Blumhouse is reported to have paid 400 million for the rights to The Exorcist, for example. Some reports say that includes production costs for an expected trilogy of films, some say it doesn't. So lets be conservative and say that Twisted would be willing to part with Saw for 200 million, half of that cost.

If both of these assumptions are accurate, that means any potential investor would not see a return on investment for somewhere between 14 to 25 films. And that's if they all perform around the same level as the last few have, excluding Spiral.

The first ""problem"" here is that the series is still very reliant on Tobin Bell to perform in its expected range, and hasn't proven it can work without it. Tobin isn't going to be making 25 more Saw films. That means that any investor that wants that ROI has to believe that THEY can make it work without him, where Twisted has failed.

It's not hard to imagine HOW Hollywood would want to attempt to make it work without him, and that brings me to the second problem: Spiral already attempted it, and failed.

Say what you will about its quality, and I'll be the first to agree that Spiral could have been more successful than it ended up being, but it doesn't really matter. To any potential investor, Spiral was only a few years ago, and it's unlikely audiences who didn't respond to it would look favorably at another reboot attempt that shows similarities to it. And if you look at Spiral, it's very much an attempt to reboot it in the current Hollywood "flavor of the month" way. It's an attempt to follow the Halloween formula. They had a famous unexpected figure (Chris Rock) come in to spearhead the reboot. A comedian playing a serious role. You can say Chris Rock wasn't the right choice, or say Spiral wasn't good enough. But lets put it this way -- Would many sane investors think it's a no-brainer to spend 200 million to gamble on trying to make Spiral again, but this time "done better"?

I don't think so. I think most investors will want to explore an alternate scenario: They'll want Saw at a heavy discount, well below that 200 mil assumption, and they'll use that proximity to Spiral and point to it as a reason why they want that discount. So now, lets put ourselves in the shoes of Mark Burg and Oren Koules, the co-owners of Saw and the people behind Twisted Pictures.

Both of them are presumably quite rich and not at all hurting for cash or assets. They can afford to be patient. If they decide to sell, and potential interested buyers aren't willing to pay a premium for the franchise because of the sheer proximity to Spiral and the fact that reboots have been so recent, what are they likely to do? I think they're likely to sit on the franchise for a long time, until enough time has passed for Spiral to be a distant memory, for a new Hollywood surefire formula to reboot franchises has become to norm, and for audiences to "miss" Saw. At that point in time, it's likely they'll be able to sell the franchise for a bigger price than they could get for it now. And that's why I think it's probably the scenario we're likely to see.

That's essentially my analysis. I know it's a very depressing conclusion to come to, but this is why I think it's likely we've seen the last of Saw for quite some time. I'm curious to hear other perspectives, and completely open to being told I'm off-base or that I missed crucial details here. If you think differently, I want to hear from you! And if not, I'm still curious to hear about how the community feels about all of this.

Thanks for taking the time to read me, and for being here to talk Saw with us after all these years. If this is the last of Saw for a while, I'll have great memories of this community and will be here when it inevitably re-emerges in the future.